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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would serve as assurances matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government said it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept troops from NATO member states operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.